Heat and health
Prolonged heat can place particular strain on older people, outdoor workers and residents of buildings that are difficult to cool.
SCIENCE • FUTURES • RESPONSIBILITY
2035 – Where Is Our World Heading?
A warmer world does not necessarily mean a collapsing world. But the next decade will show how far we can reduce risks and adapt to change.
Analysis and scenarios, not certain predictions.
2035.CFThe future is still ours to shape.
THE STAKES OF THE NEXT DECADE
Not a date for the end of the world.
A reckoning for a decade.
By 2035, neither the inevitable collapse of civilisation nor a climate crisis successfully solved is the most realistic expectation.
A more likely future is a world that continues to function and develop while devoting increasing resources to heat, water scarcity, extreme weather and ecological damage. Impacts may vary greatly by region and social group.
The future cannot be described by a single date or temperature value. Scientific observations, modelled projections and analytical conclusions must therefore be distinguished.
01Warming
Global temperatures remain high.
02Accumulating heat
The oceans absorb most of the excess energy in the climate system.
03Adaptation
Reducing risks depends on cutting emissions and preparing for change.
01 / THE GLOBAL PICTURE
Warming is not just a forecast.
The planet has already warmed, and the extent of further warming depends largely on future greenhouse gas emissions. Annual temperatures are also influenced by natural variability, such as El Niño and La Niña.
It is important to distinguish an exceptionally warm year from the multi-decadal global average. A single year above 1.5°C does not, by itself, mean that the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature threshold has been permanently crossed.
The key point
The story is not one record-breaking year, but a warming baseline and risks that compound over time.
02 / THE PLANET’S HEAT RESERVOIR
The oceans hold much of the accumulated heat.
According to the IPCC, the oceans absorbed about 91% of the excess energy accumulated in the climate system between 1971 and 2018. This helps explain why monitoring air temperature alone is not enough.
Ocean warming contributes to sea-level rise, marine heatwaves and pressure on ecosystems. Regional impacts differ, and changes do not occur at the same rate everywhere.
- Thermal expansion of warming seawater raises sea levels.
- Marine heatwaves can threaten wildlife.
- Accumulated heat does not disappear after a cooler year.
03 / NATURAL VARIABILITY
El Niño: a natural phenomenon in a warmer world.
El Niño is a natural fluctuation in the sea surface and atmosphere of the tropical Pacific. It can alter rainfall and temperatures, bringing drought to some regions and heavier rainfall to others.
It is not the same as climate change and does not, on its own, explain every extreme event. Its effects, however, occur within a climate system already warmed by human activity.
What should not be confused?
Short-term El Niño forecasts, annual global temperatures and the long-term warming trend.
04 / EUROPE AND HUNGARY
Climate change is reshaping the conditions of everyday life.
In Hungary, summer heat, the timing of rainfall, soil moisture and retaining water in the landscape are especially important issues.
Agricultural risks
Crop yields may become increasingly sensitive to heat stress, rainfall timing, soil conditions and water availability.
Water in the landscape
It is not just the amount of rainfall that matters, but how much infiltrates the soil, runs off, and remains available for dry periods.
The question is not whether Hungary will remain habitable, but how much a safe life will cost and how well we prepare for extremes.
05 / ECOLOGICAL TIPPING POINTS
Risks can compound.
Changes in ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Amazon forest system, coral reefs and permafrost involve different uncertainties. It cannot be claimed that all of them will cross a tipping point by 2035.
Another danger is that several reinforcing problems may affect societies at once: heat increases water demand, water scarcity can weaken agriculture, and crop losses can cause economic and social tensions.
The image combines several environmental risks in one composition; it does not depict a single real location.
06 / ECONOMY AND CARBON MARKETS
Climate risk is also an economic issue.
Adaptation, energy supply, food production, insurability and corporate emissions are increasingly interconnected challenges.
A
Emissions reduction
Energy efficiency, cleaner energy production and process transformation are fundamental tools for mitigating climate change.
B
Credible carbon projects
Properly substantiated projects can play a role in addressing residual emissions, but they do not replace actual emissions reductions.
C
Transparent registry
Traceable unit identification, status management and documented retirement can help reduce the risk of double counting. A registry does not replace project verification.
Credibility will be decisive.
It is not enough to claim that carbon offsetting has taken place. We must know what environmental outcome was substantiated, using which methodology, and how verifiable the result is.
07 / THREE POSSIBLE PATHWAYS
2035 is not a story already written.
The following scenarios illustrate possible directions; they are not quantitative probability forecasts.
Faster action
Emissions reductions and adaptation accelerate. Risks do not disappear, but future damage can be reduced.
- Accelerating transition
- Stronger adaptation
- Lower future risks
Mixed results
Technology advances, but emissions reductions remain uneven. Societies continue to function while damage and costs rise.
- Uneven progress
- Rising adaptation costs
- Recurring extremes
Delay
Emissions reductions fall short of what is needed, adaptation is delayed, and compounding losses emerge in multiple regions.
- Greater climate stress
- More severe local impacts
- Greater social pressure
Our analytical baseline is the intermediate pathway, while taking the risk of more severe consequences seriously. This is not an official model forecast.
08 / WHAT CAN WE DO?
We cannot choose the future in every respect. But we can influence the risks.
The consequences of warming that has already occurred cannot be undone overnight. But decisions in the coming years will influence future warming, the severity of damage and opportunities to adapt.
- 01Cut emissions.
Real, measurable and lasting emissions reductions must come first.
- 02Prepare for change.
Water management, heat protection, resilient infrastructure and climate-adapted agriculture are needed.
- 03Support verifiable solutions.
Environmental outcomes should be transparent, verifiable and properly documented.
2035 • THE NEXT DECADE
The question is not whether there will be consequences.
It is how severe they will be.
The future is not set in every detail. The decisions we make now will shape the world we live in by 2035 and beyond.
Explore the scientific sourcesTHE FUTURE CAN BE SHAPED
Carbon offsetting can be part of the response.
Actual emissions reductions come first. Credible, verifiable carbon projects may also play a role in addressing residual emissions.
If your organisation or business would like to learn about carbon offsetting, project credibility or the role of registries, please contact us.
Clear informationOptions and key concepts explained clearly.
Credibility and transparencyThe importance of substantiated environmental outcomes.
Responsible actionEmissions reductions alongside complementary solutions.
Carbon credits do not replace direct emissions reductions and do not, by themselves, guarantee carbon neutrality.
CONTACT US
Get in touch
Complete the form and your message will reach us.
SOURCES AND FURTHER READING
The claims are supported by verifiable sources.
These sources provide starting points for climate observations, assessment reports and understanding risks. Specific dates and projections should always be checked against the original report before publication.
WMO
World Meteorological OrganizationGlobal climate monitoring and climate forecasts
↗
IPCCSixth Assessment Report – Synthesis ReportScientific assessment of climate change
↗
UNEPUnited Nations Environment ProgrammeEmissions gap and global climate policy
↗
C3SCopernicus Climate Change ServiceObservations and European climate assessments
↗
EEAEuropean Climate Risk AssessmentClimate risks in Europe
↗
This website is an educational analysis. The scenarios are not precise forecasts, and images are illustrative. The local impacts and timing of climate risks remain uncertain.